Results by MCPFE criteria and indicators

1. What do the numbers stand for?
2. What is the purpose of the standard error?
3. When are two results statistically different?
4. When is it not sufficient to consider only the standard error?
5. Two types of changes?
6. Change analyses: When are the results (not) additive?
7. Why is a dot (“.”) sometimes given in the cells for standard error or estimated value?
8. Why are no standard error values shown in some tables?
9. Negative values for growing stock, increment or fellings?

1. What do the numbers stand for?

The tables mainly show results that were calculated using statistical methods from the data of the sample inventory of the National Forest Inventory (NFI). Such results always consist of two figures: (1) the estimated value and (2) the sampling error, the so-called standard error.

The tables usually show the relative (percentage) standard error (“±%”), but occasionally – in the case of estimated percentages – the absolute standard error (“±”).

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2. What is the purpose of the standard error?

The standard error can be used to define confidence intervals around the estimated value, which contain the true value of the population with a certain statistical certainty.

The statistical certainty is:

• 68% if the confidence interval is calculated using the standard error
  (68% confidence interval = estimated value ± standard error), and
• 95% if the confidence interval is calculated using twice the standard error
  (95% confidence interval = estimated value ± 2 × standard error*)

The 95% confidence interval is larger than the 68% confidence interval. This results in higher statistical certainty with the 95% confidence interval.

When interpreting the results, one must define the level of statistical certainty that one would like to apply to the statement.

The 68% confidence interval is generally used in the National Forest Inventory (NFI).

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3. When are two results statistically different?*

This can be checked by comparing the confidence intervals of two estimated values:

• If the 68% confidence intervals of two estimates do not overlap, it can be assumed with some certainty that the two populations differ.
• If the 95% confidence intervals of two estimates do not overlap, it can be assumed with high certainty that the two populations differ.

The confidence intervals can also be used to determine whether a value estimated with a sample from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) deviates from a target value (e.g. from Swiss forest policy) or whether a change between two inventories is statistically certain.

For many target variables in the NFI, it is possible to determine whether a change between two inventories is statistically certain, not only by comparing the states in the two inventories (see example 5), but also by analysing the net change** between the two inventories.

To do this, one must first define the level of statistical certainty that one would like to apply to the statement (as done above):

• A net change has occurred with some certainty if the relative standard error is less than 100% or if the confidence interval calculated with the absolute standard error (68% confidence interval) does not include the value 0.
• A net change has occurred with high certainty if twice the relative standard error is less than 100% or if the confidence interval calculated with twice the absolute standard error (95% confidence interval) does not include the value 0.

To assess whether a change is statistically certain, it is advisable to analyse the net change between the two inventories wherever possible. Net changes are more sensitive than status comparisons, which makes it easier to detect differences statistically. See examples 6 and 7 (net change) and 7 (comparison of two results from different inventories).

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4. When is it not sufficient to consider only the standard error?

The National Forest Inventory (NFI) is a sample-based large-scale inventory whose sample areas are arranged on a grid with a mesh size of 1.4 km × 1.4 km. The NFI was designed in such a way that the growing stock for Switzerland as a whole can be predicted with a maximum standard error of 1%.

If results are requested for individual regions or for individual classes, the standard error quickly becomes much larger. This is because the number of sample areas and subjects (e.g. sample trees, young forest plants, pieces of deadwood) analysed for the queried combination of variable expressions* is considerably lower than for the total.

Large standard errors are to be expected if:

1. forest districts are selected as the regional demarcation or results for small cantons (e.g. Appenzell Innerrhoden, Nidwalden) are queried,
2. a classification variable with many classes is selected (e.g. tree species in 56 classes),
3. several classification variables are combined with each other (e.g. main tree species and development stage).

Large standard errors are an indication that the estimate may have been based on too small a number of sample areas or subjects and that the result of the estimate therefore may not be reliable.

For the target variable “number of stems of young forest plants with browsing damage” (browsing intensity), an uncertain estimate is not necessarily recognisable by a large standard error. This is because this target variable is a quotient estimator**, which is – due to the survey method – only based on a small number of assessed young forest plants for rarer tree species (e.g. pine, larch, Arolla pine, oak, chestnut). Accordingly, for this target variable one should always check how many young forest plants were assessed for the individual estimates. As a rule of thumb, at least 30 young forest plants per estimate should have been assessed for browsing in order to obtain a reliable estimate.

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5. Two types of changes?

There are two types of changes in the National Forest Inventory (NFI):

• The first type of change involves specific target variables for change components such as increment, fellings or mortality. These target variables are only available for two consecutive measurement cycles, e.g. NFI4 to NFI5. When change components are analysed, the classification variable expression of the second measurement cycle is generally assigned to the first measurement cycle. These analyses therefore do not take into account any change in the expression (e.g. from private to public ownership) from the earlier to the later measurement cycle.
• In the second type of change, the difference in target variables, such as stem number, growing stock or forest area, is used to calculate the net change between two measurement cycles. These target variables are usually used to represent states, e.g. that in NFI5, but can also show the net change between any two measurement cycles, e.g. between NFI1 and NFI5. In these net change analyses, the change in expression is taken into account for some of the classification variables, including “tree condition” and “forest, non-forest”. In this way, it can be seen, for example, that the forest area has increased. For the remaining classification variables, the expressions are regarded as static. This means that the most recent state – whether it was assessed in a measurement cycle (e.g. “primary forest function NFI5”) or taken from an external data source (e.g. “protection forest [2022]”) – is assigned to all measurement cycles.

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6. Change analyses: When are the results (not) additive?

The results are:

• additive if they are reported as the total change between two measurement dates. For example, the fellings for the various production regions reported in cubic metres (m³) can be added together to obtain the total fellings for Switzerland.
• not additive if they are reported as a change per year (e.g. m³/year). For example, the fellings for the various production regions reported in cubic metres per year (m³/year) cannot be added together to obtain the total fellings for Switzerland.

The non-additivity of changes expressed per year arises because the total change is divided by the average number of years between the two measurement dates in the domain* under consideration, and this average number of years varies slightly depending on the domain.

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7. Why is a dot (“.”) sometimes given in the cells for standard error or estimated value?

In the calculation of a results table, data is not always available for all combinations of variable expressions*. In most cases, this indicates that the variable estimated with the relevant target variable does not occur or only occurs very rarely. The value 0 is then usually used. However, as this value is not based on any direct measurements, a dot (“.”) is given for the associated standard error. If reference is made to the assumed value of 0 in the calculation, e.g. in the case of percentages or certain change estimates, no value can be used. In this case, a dot (“.”) is given for the estimated value and the standard error.

For example, no Arolla pines have yet been found and measured in the Plateau in the National Forest Inventory (NFI) (growing stock of Arolla pine by production region). It can therefore be assumed that the values are missing because the Arolla pine actually does not occur in the Plateau, and therefore the growing stock in that region must be 0.

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8. Why are no standard error values shown in some tables?

The data in these tables originates from a complete survey and not from a sample inventory. Accordingly, it is not necessary to specify a standard error because there is no uncertainty due to sampling.

The forest road network survey that the National Forest Inventory (NFI) periodically carries out with the local forestry services is an example of such a complete survey.

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9. Negative values for growing stock, increment or fellings?

A negative value is possible if the result could only be calculated on the basis of a few trees. The estimate is therefore not reliable. This is also reflected in the standard error, which is usually extremely large for negative stock, increment or felling values.

Negative values can occur because, when the stemwood volume of the tally trees is determined, the volume estimated solely on the basis of the diameter at breast height (DBH) (tariff volume) is adjusted using the volume of the tally trees estimated on the basis of DBH, diameter at 7 m height and tree height. This procedure enables an unbiased and more accurate calculation of the stemwood volume. However, it can lead to negative values for all target variables that are based on the stemwood volume of the tally trees (e.g. growing stock, increment, fellings) if the number of tally trees in the selected combination of variable expressions* is small.

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