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Estimates and standard error of the estimates

The results published in the NFI tables are estimates for variables in the Swiss forest (population parameters) whose true values are not known and must therefore be extrapolated (estimated) from the NFI sample data.

The extrapolations carry uncertainties. However, the accuracy of the extrapolations can be reliably estimated from the NFI sample, which is designed to be a random sample. To this end, all NFI tables include a second figure in addition to the estimate itself, namely the standard error of the estimate.

In most tables the percent standard error is reported (±%), but the absolute standard error (±) is also reported occasionally, especially for estimated percentages. The relationship between absolute and percent standard error is as follows:

percent standard error = absolute standard error / estimate × 100

absolute standard error = percent standard error × estimate / 100

Information on the forest road network is based on a full survey of all forest roads. In this case, there is no need to specify a standard error because there is no uncertainty caused by sampling.

Confidence interval of the estimate

With the estimate and the standard error of the estimate, the limits of the so-called confidence interval of the estimate can be calculated as:

lower limit = estimate – tQ × absolute standard error

upper limit = estimate + tQ × absolute standard error

If the simple standard error is used for the calculation (tQ = 1), then the 68% confidence interval is formed. In this case, the true value of the population parameter has a 68% probability of lying within this confidence interval of the estimate. If the double standard error is used (tQ = 2), then there is a 95% probability that the true value lies within this 95% confidence interval.

Significance of the estimate

The confidence interval can be used to statistically test whether the estimated population parameter is larger or smaller than a specific reference or target value, or whether two estimated population parameters truly differ (in the real population). For practical applications, proceed as follows: if a reference value lies outside the confidence interval, the estimated population value can be interpreted as being significantly different from it; if it lies within the confidence interval, the difference between the estimated population parameter and the reference value can be interpreted as random or not significant. When two population parameters are compared, they can be interpreted as differing significantly if their confidence intervals do not overlap.

Dealing with missing values

When calculating a results table, data are not always available for all combinations of characteristics^* of the classification variables and regional demarcation applied. In most cases, this indicates that the attribute estimated with the respective target variable does not occur or occurs only very rarely. Usually, the value 0 is used (imputed). However, as this value is not based on direct measurements, the associated standard error is represented with a full stop [.]. If the imputed value of 0 is referred to in the calculation, e.g. in the case of percentages or certain change estimates, no value can be entered. In this case, the estimated value and standard error are both represented with a full stop [.].

For example, no Arolla pines have been found and measured in the Swiss Plateau to date (growing stock of Arolla pines by production region). The values can be assumed to be missing because Arolla pine does not occur in the Swiss Plateau and therefore the growing stock there must be 0.

^* e.g. ‘Arolla pine’ characteristic of the classification variable ‘tree species’ and ‘Swiss plateau’ characteristic of the ‘regional demarcation’

Changes

There are two types of changes in the NFI:

The first type involves specific target variables relating to components of change, such as increment, fellings, mortality and losses. These target variables are only available for two consecutive inventory cycles, e.g. NFI3–NFI4. In the evaluation of components of change, the classification variable characteristic of the second inventory cycle is assigned to the first inventory cycle. These evaluations therefore do not take into account potential changes in a classification variable characteristic from the earlier to the later inventory (e.g. from private to public ownership).

With the second type of change, the difference in target variables, such as number of stems, growing stock or forest area, is used to assess the change between two inventory cycles. Target variables are generally used to represent states, such as that in NFI4, but can also indicate the net change between any two inventory cycles, e.g. NFI1–NFI4. In evaluations of change using these target variables, the change in a classification variable characteristic is considered in the analysis. Consequently, one can detect, for example, that the forest area without shrub forest increased between the two inventory cycles. This only has an effect on classification variables whose characteristic (class) can actually change, e.g. the affiliation with a forest area or the tree condition.

NFI4–NFI5
increment (gross increment)
site quality · conifers and broadleaves
regional demarcation: economic region
unit: 1000 m³/yr
evaluation area: accessible forest without shrub forest NFI1-NFI5
grid: 1.4 km grid, subgrids 1-5
change 2009/17–2018/26
		economic region
		Western Jura		Eastern Jura		Western Plateau		Central Plateau		Eastern Plateau		Western Pre-Alps		Central Pre-Alps		Eastern Pre-Alps		Northwestern Alps		Central Alps		Northeastern Alps		Southwestern Alps		Southeastern Alps		Southern Alps		Switzerland
site quality	conifers and broadleaves	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%	1000 m³/yr	±%
n/a	n/a	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.
	conifers	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.
	broadleaves	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.
	indeterminable	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.
	total	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.
low	n/a	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.
	conifers	80	22	7	57	0	21586	7	36	10	49	15	40	72	26	12	47	67	28	18	56	51	36	48	28	143	16	28	33	559	9
	broadleaves	64	22	3	149	6	99	29	39	16	67	9	87	21	65	2	146	10	63	8	71	7	54	16	44	0	89	0	100	190	16
	indeterminable	0	.	0	.	0	0	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	0	0	0	0	.	0	0
	total	144	17	10	75	6	123	36	35	26	49	23	41	93	25	14	44	77	26	27	45	58	34	64	24	144	16	28	33	748	8
moderate	n/a	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.
	conifers	150	17	0	.	6	84	1	100	1	100	151	19	69	26	101	23	193	17	33	47	37	38	393	11	538	9	230	13	1905	5
	broadleaves	49	22	0	.	2	98	2	100	2	100	17	41	22	39	36	31	22	65	10	75	27	38	44	24	54	27	90	27	379	11
	indeterminable	0	0	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	0	0	0	0	.	0	0	0	.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	total	199	15	0	.	8	77	4	100	2	100	169	18	92	23	137	21	215	17	43	39	64	30	437	11	592	9	320	12	2283	4
good	n/a	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.
	conifers	344	12	42	28	95	26	129	21	150	17	91	29	436	12	339	14	51	27	79	29	54	32	24	53	159	20	78	31	2070	5
	broadleaves	148	12	65	23	80	27	90	20	158	20	45	35	122	18	132	19	31	37	27	39	46	34	13	48	34	38	304	11	1292	6
	indeterminable	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.	0	0	0	0	0	0
	total	492	9	107	20	175	21	219	17	307	15	136	23	558	10	471	12	82	24	106	24	100	26	37	39	192	18	383	11	3362	4
very good	n/a	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.
	conifers	220	15	79	22	140	20	480	11	482	10	14	45	133	20	89	28	10	54	1	91	6	59	0	.	0	.	0	.	1651	5
	broadleaves	161	15	132	17	134	25	241	13	352	9	13	63	35	33	76	35	21	44	-2	267	16	43	-2	224	0	.	10	61	1187	6
	indeterminable	0	0	0	.	0	0	0	.	0	0	0	.	0	.	0	0	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	0
	total	381	12	211	15	273	16	721	9	834	7	27	48	169	18	165	23	31	38	-1	976	22	39	-2	224	0	.	10	61	2839	4
total	n/a	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.	0	.
	conifers	793	7	128	16	241	15	617	9	642	8	272	15	711	8	540	10	321	13	132	22	148	19	465	10	840	7	336	11	6184	2
	broadleaves	423	8	200	13	221	18	363	10	528	8	83	24	201	14	245	15	84	25	44	34	96	21	71	21	88	22	403	10	3048	3
	indeterminable	0	0	0	.	0	0	0	.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	total	1217	5	328	11	462	13	980	7	1170	6	355	13	911	7	785	9	405	12	176	19	244	16	536	9	927	7	739	7	9232	2

Table citation

Abegg, M.; Ahles, P.; Allgaier Leuch, B.; Cioldi, F.; Didion, M.; Düggelin, C.; Fischer, C.; Herold, A.; Meile, R.; Rohner, B.; Rösler, E.; Speich, S.; Temperli, C.; Traub, B.,
2023: Swiss national forest inventory - Result table No. 1403926. Birmensdorf, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL

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